Edit 5: May T+21 FTD prediction dates posted. Scroll down to view **May Prediction**
Edit 4: As predicted, price jump occurred once again on April 26-27th. Scroll down to see **April Update**
Edit 3: Updated post to reflect the FINRA 7140 rule using the Reddit mobile app, and now all the images I posted are gone (wtheck!). Trying to locate them all in my recycle bin and will be re-uploading all pics.
Edit 2: I’m receiving some comments today on 4/21 about my thesis. Remember, I’m not referring to the 21st of every month, I’m referring to trading days (excluding weekends and NYSE holidays), which I’ve explained in detail below.
Edit 1: Will be updating for April around 4/28 once all the data is available. Please scroll down to April Assumptions.Theory/TL;DR
There seems to be a consistent pattern in GME’s price jumping around the 21st/22nd trading day of every month, since the December 22, 2020 price jump.
This may be related to MM’s/Shitadel 21-Day fail-to-deliver, since GME jumps in price even without any catalysts on those particular days.
Edit: I’m unable to find any concrete info from SEC/FINRA about the 21-day FTD rule for Market Makers (I’ve seen several posts across diff subreddits about it). Found it, see edit below.
Edit 1: I found this FINRA 7140 rule about T+21 days and it mentions the following:
(3) Automatic Lock-in
Any trade that remains open (i.e. unmatched or unaccepted) at the end of its entry day will be carried over for continued comparison and reconciliation. The System will automatically lock in and submit to DTCC as such any carried-over T to T+21 (calendar day) trade if it remains open as of 2:30 p.m. on the next business day. The System will carry over any T+22 (calendar day) or older “as/of” trade that remains open, but such trade will not be subject to the automatic lock-in process.
Note: The part that threw me off from the above rule is that it mentions calendar days =\
Edit 2: Apes 🦍, this isn’t DD. I’m simply sharing my observation and would love others’ input (hence marked as a Discussion).
Now, we all know the reported short interest is BS, and if it was as low as they’re reporting, this particular price pattern would not persist.
According to some past posts (not Shitadelling on anyone’s DD, respect to all apes contributing to this beautiful community!), a lot of emphasis was placed on options expiry date (Friday); esp the 3rd Friday of every month– the assumption has been that GME’s price will significantly jump on those particular days.
However, GME seems to jump every 21st and 22nd trading days, and not necessarily on Friday’s options expiry date.—— My Thoughts
Shitadel and friends purposely bring down price on options expiry date in order to slow down momentum and delay MOASS. However, if options expiry date happens to be around the 21st/22nd trading day, then we may see an even higher price jump on those particular days.
Edit: Perhaps I may not have explained myself properly/worded this post correctly, considering the comments. To be clear, I see a relation in the 21-day FTD rule (MM’s can’t locate shares to deliver) to GME’s price jump around every 21-22 trading days (again, not calendar days), ever since December 22, 2020.
I’m assuming the price jump on Dec. 22, 2020 occurred because Ryan Cohen filed a 13D on 12/21/2020, increasing his position in $GME, which served as a catalyst. This is likely where the HFs/MMs knew they truly were screwed.
Important: I am NOT predicting dates of a MOASS here, just simply pointing out my observation in $GME price jumps. I explain more in detail below, with pics for my fellow apes who can’t read.
Also, I didn’t flair this as DD because this ain’t no bombshell discovery.
I would simply like some insight and hoping an intelli-ape can shed some light on this.
I’m sure some smart ape must’ve noticed this price pattern before.
Me just a dumb ape who has a brain as smooth as the buns on this filet o’ fishy:
LOL! This is a fish sammich from McDonald’s for those asking 😂😂—— My Observation
So check this…
Last month, I noticed an interesting pattern and didn’t want to post about it until I tested out the theory to see if it played out this month as well.
And lo-and-beHODL, it happened again.
This is something I noticed in Feb, and the price jump has been consistent since December 2020 (though I did see a similar trend in November, but on different trading days: Nov 25-28th, if you wanna take a look).Price Jumps every 21-22nd Trading Day since Dec 2020
Trading Day: days the U.S. stock market is open, excluding any weekends/holidays.
REMINDER: market will be closed Friday, April 2nd.
Alright, so around every 21-22nd trading day, since the December 22, 2020 price jump, $GME tends to jump up significantly, followed by a downward price pressure typically on the 23rd trading day.
Friendly reminder, I’m talking trading days here, and not the 21st or 22nd of every month.
This may have a direct correlation to the 21-day FTD rule for Market Makers.
I’m going to try my best to break this down, but it may help you understand better if you take a look at GME’s price history as I explain this.—— The Pattern
On the 21st trading day (since the Dec 22, 2020 price jump), momentum in price starts to build up
On the 22nd trading day, the price significantly jumps up from the previous day
On the 23rd trading day, the price starts to decrease
This same pattern has occurred every month since Dec 2020.
Now, let’s put this theory into action and take a look at $GME’s price jump since December 2020:
~ $7 price jump from the Dec 21st closing price
December 21 (Mon): $GME closed at $15.53
December 22 (Tues): $GME high $20.04 (price jumped significantly from prev day’s close)
December 23 (Wed): $GME high $22.35 (price slightly jumped from prev day’s high)
December 24 (Thurs): $GME closed at $20.15 (price starts to decrease)
Now, if you count the # of trading days from December 22 (when the price started to jump), you’ll notice the same pattern in January:
~ $116 price jump from the Jan 21st closing price
January 21 (Thurs): $GME closed at $43.03
January 22 (Fri) : $GME high was $76.76 (notice the momentum in price? This was the 21st trading day from the Dec. 22nd jump)
January 25 (Mon): $GME high was $159.18 (this was the 22nd trading day and price jumped significantly)
Price went down slightly on Jan 26th, and on Jan 27/28 it rocketed to $380/$483.
NOTE: Now I know January price continued to rise even after the 23rd trading day, but this is because of the massive media attention, RobbingHood Vlad-born-in-Bulgaria’s f*ckery, FOMO, etc.
Nonetheless, the price still followed the pattern on the 21st and 22nd trading day in January.
Moving on, it happens yet again in February.
~ $140 price jump from the Feb 23rd closing price
February 23 (Tues): $GME closed at $44.97 (interesting how it opened and closed at the same exact price)
February 24 (Wed): $GME high was $91.71 (again, price momentum building up on the 21st trading day since the Jan 25th price jump)
February 25 (Thurs): $GME high was $184.68 (price significantly jumped on the 22nd trading day)
February 26 (Fri): $GME closed at $101.74 (price decreased on 23rd trading day)
Here we go again in March, we see the same pattern:
~ $98 price jump from the Mar 24th closing price
March 24 (Wed): $GME closed at $120.34
March 25 (Thurs): $GME high was $187.50 (this was the 21st trading day since Feb 24th price build up)
March 26 (Fri): $GME high was $218.93 (again, price had a nice jump from previous day’s close)
Edit: Even after the March 24th f*ckery where the price was dropped all the way to $118.62, it STILL jumped up on the 21st trading day: March 25th.
Note: I didn’t include the March 8-10th price jump because I believe that was the result of catalysts: GME announced Ryan Cohen to lead special Board Committee on 3/8, including appointing a new CTO. On 3/9, GME announced the Q4 earnings release date.
My point is that **aside from catalysts**, GME price jumps on those particular 21/22 trading days. This goes to show that shorts obviously haven’t covered because GME increases in price even without any catalysts.
—— Question about FTD
Can this be related to the 21 days failure-to-deliver rule for Market Makers (Shitadel) because they’re unable to deliver the shares?
I’ve read DD on the 21-day FTD rule for MM’s, but can’t for the life of me find this rule online; please link if anyone knows. Found the FINRA 7140 rule, see edit below.
If true, this proves what we all already know– shorts obviously have not covered.
Edit: I found this FINRA 7140 rule about T+21 days and it mentions the following:
(3) Automatic Lock-in
Any trade that remains open (i.e. unmatched or unaccepted) at the end of its entry day will be carried over for continued comparison and reconciliation. The System will automatically lock in and submit to DTCC as such any carried-over T to T+21 (calendar day) trade if it remains open as of 2:30 p.m. on the next business day. The System will carry over any T+22 (calendar day) or older “as/of” trade that remains open, but such trade will not be subject to the automatic lock-in process.
—— Assumptions for April
If indeed this pattern continues, then it’s likely we see a similar pattern around April 26-28th (if my ape math is wrong by a day or so, pattern may occur earlier on Friday, Apr 23rd).** April Update **
Alrighty apes, the T+21 FTD occured once again on April 26th as predicted.
Granted, this time around the price jumps weren’t as significant as the prior months’, but nonetheless, the price jumps did occur on the 21st and 22nd trading days, especially on low volume.
April 23 (Fri): $GME closed at $151.18
April 26 (Mon): $GME high was $174.68 (this was the 21st trading day since Mar 25th price build up). Also worth noting, GME hit $198 in after hours.
There were over 6k options expiring at the $200 strike price, and Shitadel made sure it didn’t hit $200. Otherwise, we would’ve seen a significant spike in price since those options would’ve been in-the-money.
April 27 (Tues): $GME high was $188 (again, price jumped on the 22nd trading day from previous day’s close)
~ $37 price jump from the April 23rd closing price. After hours jumped to $198 on 4/26– this would make it a ~$47 price jump—— May Prediction
The next T+21 FTD cycle is expected to occur on May 25-26th.
At the time of writing, there are nearly 4k options expiring at the $200 strike price, so expect some resistance at this price point.
If we’re able to break through $200, we should see a pretty handsome price jump.
I will make updates here on May 27th.—— Things to Consider
Remember: I’m referring to a price jump with or without any catalysts, given the MM’s 21-day fail-to-deliver. I am NOT fixing dates here.
Edit: In other words, regardless of what price point GME is trading at, this pattern reflects an increase in price on those particular trading days.
This doesn’t mean the price jumps will necessarily be higher than the previous month’s. It’s simply tracking the T+21 FTD cycle.
Of course A LOT can happen between now and then. GME can announce the shareholder meeting date, appoint new CFO, new Board members, more SEC filings, etc.
And as expected, more HF/Shitadel and friends f*ckery expected.
But regardless of a catalyst or not, it appears that a price jump always occurs on these particular trading days, since Dec 22, 2020.
With that said, anyone else seeing this pattern, or am I trippin?
Would love to get some insight on this!
Obligatory: No SEC, this isn’t financial advice. You should know by now I’m a smooth-brain ape. The other day I put 2 quarters in my ear and thought I was listening to 50 Cent.
Even more obligatory: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🙌💎