This is only reproduced partially
What I hope the DD will be
Many of you probably noticed in my last post that I said we need to stop all of this AMC conspiracy stuff. I still believe that and could make an entire post about why we need to stop doing that and why it’s wrong – that’s not what this DD will be about. Instead, I hope to make this DD about the fact that every meme stock (GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, NOK, etc.) have all been trading in extremely similar patterns since December and are now ALL SQUEEZING AGAIN. Short squeezes are rare, really rare. Stocks following almost identical trading patterns is weird, really weird. But both of those things happening to 5 different stocks? Now that’s fucking asinine. I am also fairly confident that many if not all of the aforementioned stocks follow an FTD cycle as well. Finally, isn’t it weird that all of these stocks got restricted at the exact same time by every single brokerage and they all claimed it was because of liquidity issues. The funny thing about liquidity is that it works on both the buy and the sell side, so if they really had liquidity issues, they would’ve just halted buying AND selling. That screams “systematic risk / something more than meets the eye” to me.
IMO, if we can get data that confirms that these stocks are in fact correlated to a statistically significant extent, all have FTD cycles, all have extremely high short interest that has fluctuated in concert, and all have similar volume patterns, then we can get the closest proof that shorts have not covered other than literally seeing their accounts. The point of this DD would be that if we can prove to a statistically significant extent that all of these anomalies are correlated, then we can prove that it is not the media narrative of retail buying and is instead shorts being forced to cover. IMO retail mass buying has been tapped out since March. Now I think that retail only buys a little and still holds it’s fucking balls off. Retail holding is why this is able to happen. However, IMO, HF forced covering is why the price keeps going up.
Now, you may be thinking “ok if what he’s saying pans out to be true then it could divide apes and take attention away from GME.” First of all, IMO, the truth is what’s most important here. Second, and most important, GME presents the greatest opportunity out of all of these stocks, has BY FAR the most retail support (in terms of holding), and has by far the most retail media attention (i.e. reddit). I don’t believe that this will take away from GME whatsoever. HFs put us in this situation with lies and if we can get closer to the truth, we can get closer to unearthing their lies and ultimately winning the battle. Below is a slightly altered version of what I sent to some apes in my messages. Please note that if you sent me a message saying you’re a data scientist and want to help, though I appreciate you, I will be declining all of those messages to clear my inbox for messages from this post (remember what I said above about only messaging me very important things).The data request:
** This is not financial advice nor a paid solicitation**
My goal for this DD is to obtain data that will be the closest thing other than seeing actual HF positions to allow us to conclude that shorts have indeed not covered. I will be using the data that I get from this assignment as well as my own data and charts. If you follow my DDs, you’ll notice that over the past few DDs I’ve really hammered the point about GME, AMC, KOSS, BBBY, NOK, and EXPR being a part of the biggest failing of HF shorting of all time due to abusive shorting that started during covid but was hampered by a faster than expected recovery. IMO, the visual similarities of the graphs of these stocks are too striking to ignore. I also believe that AMCs recent run up is not a distraction like many people think it is, instead I think it’s a symptom of something much greater. This is why I believe that all of these stocks are related and that getting concrete data on this correlation might help us to reveal something about an even bigger FTD cycle that HFs are stuck in (IMO this is probably why all of these stocks were unprecedentedly restricted).
So, a lot of this document will have tasks that ask you to compare those stocks in some way. Please note, that this document does not portray the complete picture of what my next DD will contain as I have more points and data that I will be including. Again, it will be difficult for me to answer questions, so if you have any questions, I invite you to answer them yourselves by adding your own assumption or personal touches. Thank you apes.
Note: For chart view please use a 1 day chart unless I ask for a specific time of day (then use 1 min or 5 min). If, however, you think that using a smaller view would be beneficial, go ahead! The time frame can be as long as makes sense to you – again I will be getting tons of these so I am all for variation!
I hope to complete this DD by Sunday so I can post on Monday before earnings and the meeting. If you could try to get this to me ASAP I’d be very grateful.
QUESTION: Is there a statistically significant correlation between the price action GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, NOK, and VIX?
EXPLANATION: I’d like you to run a comparison of each of these stocks to GME and then, if possible, compare them all simultaneously. From your comparison, please try to determine the degree of correlation and its statistical significance. The data that I suggest using is from Yahoo finance. If you go on the historical data tab of the stock, there will be a link to download the price and volume data into an excel file. Finally, if you have time and if you are able, do the same thing but with the volumes.
QUESTION: Is there a statistically significant correlation between the OTC trading data of GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, and NOK?
EXPLANATION: I’d like you to use FINRA data (I think some is on fintel as well) of the aforementioned stocks and try tell me if there is a statistically significant correlation between the trading patterns, volume, and price action of these stocks on the OTC markets.
ALTERNATIVE ASSIGNMENT: If what I said above confuses you, then I invite you to simply take the OTC data available on the listed sites for the aforementioned stocks and make me some graphs and tables so that I can visualize it.
QUESTION: When did the short interest for GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, and NOK start to increase significantly?
EXPLANATION: I’d like you to try to find out when exactly the SI for all of these stocks started to increase. Did they all increase around the same time? Who had the biggest increase? Etc. To find this information, you can use FINRA data or, if you have an Ortex or Fintel subscription, you might be able to find it from those. If you could also give me a graph of the short interest of these stocks over time that would be great.
QUESTION: How often do major short squeezes happen?
EXPLANATION: I’d like you to try and find out how often major short squeezes happen in the stock market. My definition of a major short squeeze is when a stock doubles in price (or more) within one week (so TSLA would not be a short squeeze by that definition). I don’t need you to tell me each specific case, I just need to know how often they happen on average.
QUESTION: Is the FTD cycle statistically significant?
EXPLANATION: You’ve probably seen my posts on the FTD cycle where GME markedly increases every 21 trading days or 35 calendar days (with a margin of error of about two days). I’d like you to run a test to see if these increases are statistically significant. For reference on when this starts, see my most recent FTD cycle post. For the stock’s data, go to Yahoo Finance and under historical data, you will be able to download the price and volume into an excel doc.
EXTRA: Do the same for KOSS, BBBY, AMC, NOK, EXPR
EXTRA EXTRA: Create an FTD cycle model for GME (other stocks don’t matter for this) that predicts future FTD cycles based on the rate of change of the FTD cycles we’ve already seen. Essentially, just make a model predicting the FTD cycle prices and show me the equation you used, if any.
QUESTION: Is retail really behind the recent GME push?
EXPLANATION: Robinhood only offers premarket trading from 9-9:30. Assuming that Robinhood is mostly retail, is there a statistically significant pattern of GME price increases between 9-9:30am? (This would be when retail overnight buy orders are executed)
** MODELING: Most difficult assignment (I do not expect anyone to be able to do this, but I thought I’d put it out there):
Remember when it was pretty well known that GME had 140% SI right before the squeeze? Well, us apes know it was definitely higher, but you remember. Remember when Robinhood and every other broker cucked us by restricting buying? Well, what if they didn’t? I’d like you to construct a model that predicts how high GME’s price could have gone without the restrictions. Because I have sent this to so many people, I expect these models to be extremely different, so you will undoubtedly have to make some of your own assumptions, and that’s a good thing! For example, you might assume that the SI was actually 400%, that volume would have continued to increase, and that apes would’ve continued to hold. Contrastingly, you might assume that SI was indeed 140%, that volume would have been higher some days and lower others, and that paperhands would have won the day. Either way, I want to see what your model says about GME’s price without the brokerage restrictions. If SOMEHOW, you complete that model, first, you’re fucking brilliant. Second, and only if you feel like it, please do the same for AMC, KOSS, NOK, BBBY, EXPR
FINAL ASSIGNMENT:
If I decide to use any of what you provide me for my DD, would you like me to give you credit or would you like to remain anonymous?Conclusion
That was the list of questions that I sent to other people. The point of it is to essentially prove that all of these stocks are interconnected and all go back to one big fucking blunder on the part of the HFs that they are now trying to fix (in vein I might add).
Again, if you would like to add your own creative touches or even make a completely different data model, be my fucking guest. If you want to share your data as public information in this sub or on this post as a comment feel completely free. If you would rather remain anonymous and just send it to me, feel free as well. I will still be making a DD with the data from this and, because I think a lot of this will now be public, I think that many other apes will as well. Please remember what I said about only messaging me things relating to this data post or CRUCIAL questions. As always,
Stay strong, apes.