The Retail Whales, Volume 3: The Splash Heard Around the World. End Game Theory. πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ¦πŸ”±πŸŒ•πŸ”œ DD

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Shoutout to u/FULL_Option_8067 for sharing some data and knowledge. Much appreciated !!! None of this is financial advice, use this info to make your own decisions.

Link to previous DD that is a good warmer for this one. https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh3870/how_the_retail_whales_finish_off_the_shorties_due/

r/Superstonk - The Retail Whales, Volume 3: The Splash Heard Around the World. End Game Theory. πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ¦πŸ”±πŸŒ•πŸ”œ DD

Retail Ownership – Based on Public Data

Retail ownership based on public data is staggering. We once thought institutions were making all of the moves on GameStop but it turns out after January a new whale entered the market. The below table was calculated two different ways.The numbers are not perfect and I will update as wrinkled brains object to them. The first way was with bloomberg data/ Ortex data. The second was with data from NasDaq/Fidelity/Bloomberg/Ortex.

The reason for not including the short interest hiddin in calls and puts is to be conservative. I want to be as conservative as possible as I am an engineer and that’s how we do things. Full disclaimer: I 100% believe there is short interest being hidden within the options chain. That is not important for what I am trying to illustrate but you can multiply my examples by what is believed to be held in the options chain. . . Cough, Cough at least tens of millions of shares.

r/Superstonk - The Retail Whales, Volume 3: The Splash Heard Around the World. End Game Theory. πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ¦πŸ”±πŸŒ•πŸ”œ DD

Table of Calculations Made for Retail Ownership

Retail Whale Super Splash

Ok, so big deal we own a bunch of shares but we still don’t have the power to move the market, right? WRONG. Let us use 40 million as retail ownership to have a nice round number. Now let’s say an average ape holds 100 shares. Let’s also say that from week to week retail is 95% tapped out. To make this relatable imagine an ape who owns 100 shares could stretch their limits to buy 5 shares.

How do you tap into Retail shares? GameStop releases some super bullish or hype news. Let’s say for example they tweet a picture of a spaceman on the moon or correct the name of a game to be *MOASS Effect. That will get retails tits jacked right? Yes, you are correct. I myself tapped out a few shares on that news.

Now let’s say the news really excites retail, excited enough to buy 1% more shares. For someone with 100 shares that would be 1 share. For someone with 50 shares that would be .5 shares. For someone with 200 shares that would be 2 shares. Sure some will buy more, some will buy less and some will not buy at all. Regardless let’s say that got retail excited enough to expand their position 1% those two days. That is 400,000 shares added by retail on top of what is regularly purchased every day. Would you consider someone buying 400,000 shares a whale? Remember these are very conservative numbers. If we say retail owns 80 million based on option data then a 1% tap into retail would yield 800,000 shares. At 100 million, a 1% tap yields 1 million shares purchased.

I used this example for a reason. What did we see on those bullish news days? On 5/11 for the spaceman drop we had 4.7 million volume followed by 2.7 million volume on 5/12 for the MOASS drop. For the most part we traded sideways. Not to fear, in Retail Whales Volume 2 I discussed how market makers both bonafide and not have incentive to use the T+x rules when retail buying pressure gets hot. Regular market makers abide by the T+4 rules and non-bonafide market makers can push it out much further to T+28 or some other T+# discussed by DD writers before me. The reason to spread it out is to keep this week’s option chain as delta neutral as possible aka max pain. They then spread the remaining shares out to the remaining T+x days to balance a surge in price which could cause a lot of problems for them. The market makers don’t have to be short GME to have this incentive because remaining neutral makes them the most money. They can also play the option chains the upcoming weeks if they believe the remaining retail buying pressure will lift the price. Below are two tables for regarding pricing and volume on the mentioned days and days after. The graphic illustration is a figure from my 2nd DD Retail Whales Volume 2.

r/Superstonk - The Retail Whales, Volume 3: The Splash Heard Around the World. End Game Theory. πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ¦πŸ”±πŸŒ•πŸ”œ DD

SPACEMAN and MOASS Tweet Days

r/Superstonk - The Retail Whales, Volume 3: The Splash Heard Around the World. End Game Theory. πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ¦πŸ”±πŸŒ•πŸ”œ DD

Days Following the Tweets. 5/18 marks the last T+4 Settlement day.

r/Superstonk - The Retail Whales, Volume 3: The Splash Heard Around the World. End Game Theory. πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ¦πŸ”±πŸŒ•πŸ”œ DD

Figure 2: Graphical chart of the price and volume movement the days following the GameStop hype posts hugely favored retail buying pressure.

r/Superstonk - The Retail Whales, Volume 3: The Splash Heard Around the World. End Game Theory. πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ³πŸ‹πŸ¦πŸ”±πŸŒ•πŸ”œ DD

Figure 3: AMC chart highlighting those T+4 days after the GameStop hype tweets.

What Does This All Mean?

As stated before the game changed in the past couple months because we took over ownership of the company. The market moves we make are way different than what institutions were doing since they could use the employees of their company to develop plans to make money. We can’t do that because we are just multiple individual investors. We don’t buy much options which is good to not allow market makers to bank off of us, instead we buy shares and hold them fuckers. This is the retail way to win, steady buying of shares to make it impossible for shorts to contain the pressure. Buying shares over options makes it impossible for someone to short and make money off of us. Buying options is easy to rake in your money because they know how to gravitate lines to max pain.

Now could institutions jump back in for a last hoorah? You betcha and they aren’t going to do it without data on how to do it. Retail investors owning all the shares of company is a new thing. They have to study what is there. The GameStop news drop was the perfect test since the drops almost entirely ownly got retail excited. Now institutions have some data on retail with this large amount of ownership and if an opportunity comes up to catch the shorters with their pants down, they can now take advantage. They can join the retail whales and make the hedgies sing.

TDLR

Retail owns significantly more shares than they did in January. Retail replaced the old whales. At a low-ball estimate of 40 million shares being owned, that is more than any institution has ever owned of GameStop. GameStop tweets of the Space Man and the MOASS were to collect data points on retail buying pressure. Retail will respond to these with buying way before institutions. The dates were chosen for good reason since there were no other catalysts or t+ cycles to interfere with the increased buying pressure. If retail owns 100 million shares and GameStop excites them enough to increase their spending by 5% then that would be 5 million shares bought in a day. If you couple this with T+ cycles you can have a launch for the MOASS. Remember 5% of you owning 50 shares is like you going buy another 2.5 shares. Nothing crazy.

Whale TLDR

Institutions are Beluga Whales while retail is a Blue Whale. If you get blue whale excited enough he will jump out of the water and create the splash heard around the world. GameStop tested the size of the whale by releasing those hype posts. Now he knows how high he needs to make that whale jump to create the Mother of All Whale Splashes aka MOASS.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/institutional-holdings
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/evaluate/fundamentals/ownership.jhtml?sto%20ckspage=ownership&symbols=GME

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